When the team batting first finishes with a >180 SR death phase, the chasing team still wins 56% of the time.
18 of 32 captured fixtures. The narrative says "they posted a defendable score." The data says modern T20 chases over par regardless of how the first innings finished.
The numbers behind the pattern
- Fixtures with >180 SR death phase (1st inn)
- 32
- Won by chasing team
- 18
- Chase win-rate
- 56%
Most recent fixture this pattern ties to
How this is computed
Cross-tabulated across every captured fixture under /matches. Patterns are recomputed when new ball-by-ball data lands. Source: CricketMind feed, computed by CricketStudio.
Related trends
- Of 4 fixtures with a quiet 1st-innings powerplay (boundaries < 10%), the team batting second won 3.
- Teams that deployed a batting impact sub while chasing won 56.3% of those 64 matches in IPL 2026 — vs a 61.1% overall chase win rate.
- Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Sunrisers Hyderabad: 12–14 across 26 IPL matches spanning 14 seasons (2007/08–2026).
- Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore: 13–20 across 33 IPL matches spanning 19 seasons (2007/08–2026).
- Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians: 12–25 across 37 IPL matches spanning 19 seasons (2007/08–2026).
Frequently asked
- What is the conditional probability pattern in IPL 2026?
- When the team batting first finishes with a >180 SR death phase, the chasing team still wins 56% of the time.
- What does this conditional probability pattern mean?
- 18 of 32 captured fixtures. The narrative says "they posted a defendable score." The data says modern T20 chases over par regardless of how the first innings finished.
- What numbers support this pattern?
- Fixtures with >180 SR death phase (1st inn): 32 · Won by chasing team: 18 · Chase win-rate: 56%. Computed by CricketStudio from CricketMind ball-by-ball data across every captured IPL 2026 fixture.