19 seasons · 1243 matches · 2007/08–2026
IPL Toss Analysis
Who bats first, who wins, and how captain strategy has shifted across all 19 IPL seasons. Based on 1218 decided matches from the full ball-by-ball corpus.
Bat-first win rate
46%
558 wins from 1218 decided
Field-first win rate
54%
660 wins from 1218 decided
Toss winner win rate
52%
Winning toss ≠ winning match
Field election (2026)
83%
Captains electing to field
Key findings
📈
Field election has surged
Only 38% of captains elected to field in 2009/10. By 2025, it reached 84%. The IPL has fundamentally shifted toward chasing.
🏃
Best chasing season: 2016
Field-first teams won 65% of matches in IPL 2016 across 60 games — the most lopsided chasing advantage in IPL history.
🏏
Best batting season: 2015
IPL 2015 bucks the trend: bat-first teams won 57% of the time — the only season where batting first was significantly advantageous.
🎯
Toss matters less than decision
Winning the toss yields only a 52% win rate — barely above 50/50. But the decision at the toss shapes the match: chasing teams win 54% of the time across the full history.
Season-by-season breakdown
| Season | Matches | Field elected | Bat-first wins | Field-first wins | Toss winner % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74 (+2 NR) | 60/72(83%) | 27/72(38%) | 45/72(63%) | 51% |
| 2025 | 74 (+4 NR) | 58/70(83%) | 33/70(47%) | 37/70(53%) | 61% |
| 2024 | 71 | 52/71(73%) | 35/71(49%) | 36/71(51%) | 44% |
| 2023 | 74 (+1 NR) | 52/73(71%) | 40/73(55%) | 33/73(45%) | 47% |
| 2022 | 74 | 59/74(80%) | 37/74(50%) | 37/74(50%) | 49% |
| 2021 | 60 (+1 NR) | 44/59(75%) | 22/59(37%) | 37/59(63%) | 58% |
| 2020/21 | 60 (+4 NR) | 30/56(54%) | 27/56(48%) | 29/56(52%) | 45% |
| 2019 | 60 (+3 NR) | 48/57(84%) | 22/57(39%) | 35/57(61%) | 60% |
| 2018 | 60 | 50/60(83%) | 28/60(47%) | 32/60(53%) | 53% |
| 2017 | 59 (+1 NR) | 48/58(83%) | 26/58(45%) | 32/58(55%) | 59% |
| 2016 | 60 | 49/60(82%) | 21/60(35%) | 39/60(65%) | 57% |
| 2015 | 59 (+3 NR) | 31/56(55%) | 32/56(57%) | 24/56(43%) | 48% |
| 2014 | 60 (+1 NR) | 41/59(69%) | 22/59(37%) | 37/59(63%) | 49% |
| 2013 | 76 (+2 NR) | 30/74(41%) | 37/74(50%) | 37/74(50%) | 47% |
| 2012 | 74 | 37/74(50%) | 34/74(46%) | 40/74(54%) | 45% |
| 2011 | 73 (+1 NR) | 48/72(67%) | 33/72(46%) | 39/72(54%) | 53% |
| 2009/10 | 60 (+1 NR) | 20/59(34%) | 31/59(53%) | 28/59(47%) | 53% |
| 2009 | 57 (+1 NR) | 21/56(38%) | 27/56(48%) | 29/56(52%) | 59% |
| 2007/08 | 58 | 32/58(55%) | 24/58(41%) | 34/58(59%) | 48% |
| All seasons | 1243 | 810/1218 | 558/1218 (46%) | 660/1218 (54%) | 52% |
Bat-first / field-first win rates exclude no results and matches with D/L method. Sample size floor: ≥10 matches per season.
Captain strategy over time — % electing to field first
2007/08
55%
2009
38%
2009/10
34%
2011
67%
2012
50%
2013
41%
2014
69%
2015
55%
2016
82%
2017
83%
2018
83%
2019
84%
2020/21
54%
2021
75%
2022
80%
2023
71%
2024
73%
2025
83%
2026
83%
Green bars = seasons where ≥80% of captains elected to field.