IPL 2026: The Post-Wicket Tax
What does a wicket actually cost the batting side? Run rate and dismissal risk in the six balls after a wicket vs a settled partnership, across 73 IPL 2026 matches.
Summary
A wicket is scored as one event — but its cost is paid over the balls that follow, while a new partnership rebuilds. This report isolates that cost. For every delivery in IPL 2026 we tracked how many balls had passed since the last wicket in that innings, and compared the first six balls after a wicket with a settled partnership (7+ balls in). The finding mirrors the new-batter tax at the team level: a wicket costs the batting side run rate, not extra wickets. The collapse is a scoring collapse.
Scope
| Dimension | Value |
|---|---|
| Competition | IPL 2026 |
| Matches | 73 (both innings) |
| Window | Balls bucketed by balls-since-last-wicket (fresh = 1–6, settled = 7+) |
| Sample | 4,881 fresh balls · 8,413 settled balls (post-first-wicket only) |
| Dataset version | 2026-10-18 |
The tax
| State | Run rate | Dismissal rate (/100 balls) |
|---|---|---|
| First 6 balls after a wicket | 7.8 / over | 5.00 |
| Settled (7+ balls into partnership) | 9.9 / over | 5.54 |
- The run-rate tax is large. In the over after a wicket, the batting side scores at 7.8 per over — more than two runs slower than the 9.9 it manages once the new pair is set. A wicket in IPL 2026 cost the batting side roughly 2 runs an over for the next six balls, as the incoming batter plays himself in.
- The risk does not spike. Dismissal rate is actually slightly lower in those first six balls (5.00 vs 5.54 per 100). The incoming batter is cautious, not fragile — the same pattern the new-batter tax found individually.
Why it matters
"Collapse" is usually told as a cascade of wickets. The ball-by-ball record says the real mechanism is quieter: one wicket brings a stretch of sub-8 scoring, and if wickets keep falling, those stretches stack — each new batter restarting the rebuild. A team that loses three wickets in six overs doesn't just lose the batters; it loses the ~2-runs-per-over tax three times over. The defensive value of a wicket, then, is less about the batter removed and more about the scoring it suppresses while the replacement settles.
Provenance
Source: CricketStudio aggregation of IPL 2026 ball-by-ball data. Balls-since-last-wicket counted within each innings (only after the first wicket; the opening partnership is excluded). Run rate from total runs; dismissal rate counts striker dismissals per 100 legal balls. Window: IPL 2026 (73 captured matches). Computed 2026-10-18 UTC.