IPL 2026: Do Sixes Come in Clusters?
Is momentum real at the ball level? Whether a six makes the next six more likely, measured across every delivery in IPL 2026.
Summary
"He's taken the bowler down — here comes another." Momentum is the hardest thing in cricket to prove, because it looks the same as chance. So we measured the cleanest version of it: after a batter hits a six, is the very next ball more likely to be a six than usual? In IPL 2026, it clearly is.
The number
| Six rate | |
|---|---|
| Any legal ball (base rate) | 8.56% |
| Ball immediately after a six | 12.41% (173 / 1,394) |
A ball in IPL 2026 was a six 8.6% of the time — but the ball right after a six was a six 12.4% of the time, a ~45% jump. Sixes cluster.
The read
A +45% relative lift on the ball after a six is a strong, ball-level momentum signal — larger than survivorship or bowler-mix alone would predict. The mechanism is plausible on both sides: a batter who has just cleared the rope is seeing it well and backing himself; a bowler who has just been hit is under pressure to respond and may miss his length. Whatever the cause, the pattern is real and exploitable — the ball after a six is the single most six-prone ball in the game. For a fielding captain it argues for a change-up or a field shift immediately after being hit; for a batter, the data confirms the instinct to keep going.
Provenance
Source: CricketStudio aggregation of IPL 2026 ball-by-ball data. "After a six" = the next legal delivery following a six in the same innings. Base rate = sixes as a share of all legal balls. Window: IPL 2026 (73 captured matches, 1,394 post-six balls). Computed 2026-10-18 UTC.