Chinnaswamy: 90.1% Bowl First, to Near-Average Effect
July 14, 2026 · CricketStudio · How to cite
1The Finding
Chinnaswamy: 90.1% of toss-winning captains elect to field — the highest of any major IPL venue — yet chasing teams win only 55.6% across 81 matches, 12 seasons.
2What the Numbers Show
| Metric | Value | Sample / Context |
|---|---|---|
| Matches analysed | 81 | 12 seasons (2008–2025) |
| % captains electing to field | 90.1% | 73 of 81 toss winners — highest major venue |
| Chase win rate | 55.6% | 45 of 81 matches |
| Win rate — toss-elect-field | 54.8% | 40 of 73 |
| Win rate — toss-elect-bat | 37.5% | 3 of 8 — small sample |
| IPL-wide chase win rate | 54.2% | Chinnaswamy is +1.4pp above baseline |
3Why It's Surprising
A 90.1% bowl-first preference is unprecedented in the major IPL venue list — 9 of every 10 captains who win the toss here elect to field, making this the most lopsided captaincy consensus in the corpus. Yet the actual chase advantage (55.6%) is just 1.4 percentage points above the league baseline (54.2%). The conventional wisdom at Chinnaswamy is nearly universal; its payoff is nearly average. The small group who elected to bat (8 of 81) won only 37.5%, suggesting the preference is directionally correct — but wildly over-signalled.
4Scope and Limits
- Covers IPL 2008–2025 (Cricsheet corpus). IPL 2026 excluded.
- Only 8 matches where the toss winner elected to bat — high uncertainty for that sub-sample.
- No adjustment for dew, pitch preparation, or team quality at Chinnaswamy.
5Provenance
CricketStudio aggregation of Cricsheet IPL corpus (CC BY 3.0). 81 matches at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in docs/match/ipl-cs-*/. Computed 2026-07-14. Script: scripts/build-ipl-historical-trend-data.mjs.